PFF responds to Caleb Williams grade backlash and points to one costly mistake

Now, PFF has responded.

After Williams completed 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 65 yards and two more scores, PFF initially drew attention for giving the Bears quarterback a grade that didn't seem to match his dominant box score.

On Tuesday, PFF's Mark Chichester published an extensive explanation of exactly why its grading system wasn't nearly as impressed as everyone watching at home.

PFF points to one Caleb Williams mistake that never counted

PFF's final Week 1 grades gave Williams a 64.6 overall grade and a 64.0 passing grade, ranking his passing performance 16th among 30 qualifying quarterbacks. PFF argues the disconnect exists because its system grades what a quarterback does on each individual play rather than simply grading the final stat sheet.

The biggest example came on a fourth-quarter play that officially never happened.

With Chicago leading 45-31 near the goal line, Williams threw what appeared to be an interception directly to a Panthers defensive lineman who had dropped into coverage. Carolina was called for offside, wiping out the turnover.

It disappeared from the box score, but not from PFF's evaluation.

PFF gave Williams a minus-1.5 grade on the play, his largest negative of the game. The site noted that Williams had 11 positively graded dropbacks, 23 neutral plays, and six negatively graded plays among his 40 dropbacks.

Accuracy was another factor. Despite completing 72.4% of his passes, PFF charted Williams with only a 53.8% accurate-throw rate, which ranked tied for 24th among 30 qualifying quarterbacks. His accuracy was 6.8 percentage points below expectation.

PFF's explanation adds context, but the debate isn't going away

To PFF's credit, its explanation provides considerably more context than simply dropping a 64 next to Williams' name. And they aren't arguing that Williams played poorly.

The analytics giant credited him with two big-time throws, a 6.5% big-time throw rate that ranked seventh among qualifying quarterbacks, while his 0.55 EPA per play ranked fourth. PFF's point is that his spectacular production included more routine plays and accuracy issues than his final statistics suggested..

Whether Bears fans agree that it accurately captures Williams' performance is another matter entirely.

Williams produced 334 total yards, four touchdowns, zero official turnovers, and a 124.1 passer rating while directing an offense that scored a franchise-record 59 points in a season opener.

PFF has now explained why its grade was so much lower than those numbers would suggest. Something tells us the explanation won't end the argument.