Bears projected to take a step back in 2026 despite Caleb Williams-led offense

It's no longer whether the Bears are capable of contending for a playoff spot. It's whether they're ready to make the jump from playoff team to legitimate Super Bowl contender.

The Athletic isn't quite ready to put them there.

In its projections for every NFL team's 2026 win total, The Athletic projects the Bears for 9.6 victories and labels that number "just right."

Kevin Fishbain's assessment essentially divides the Bears into two categories: an offense that has significantly raised Chicago's floor and a defense that could determine just how high the ceiling goes.

Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson give Bears a high floor

The strongest argument for another successful Bears season starts with Johnson and Caleb Williams.

"The Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams duo with this offensive line and skill players has raised the floor in Chicago," Fishbain wrote.

That's the reality entering Year 2 of Johnson's offense. Chicago isn't hoping Williams suddenly becomes a franchise quarterback or wondering whether Johnson's system will translate. The Bears already won 11 games last season and captured the North.

Now they return Williams with an offense featuring D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai in the backfield, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III at receiver, and Colston Loveland at tight end.

The offensive line could be the team's biggest strength, too. Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright return, while Garrett Bradbury has taken over for the retired Drew Dalman at center.

That's why Fishbain considers a significant Bears collapse unlikely, writing that "winning fewer than eight games seems unlikely."

The real issue is whether the defense prevents Chicago from getting back to 11 wins, or exceeding that total.

Bears defense is keeping expectations in check

The only thing holding the Bears back in 2026 is the defense.

Chicago has already lost safety Coby Bryant for an extended period following knee surgery. Kyler Gordon's status remains uncertain as he works his way back, creating additional questions in the secondary.

And, uh, there's no pass rush.

That was already one of Chicago's biggest concerns entering the offseason, and nothing about the preseason has completely eliminated it. The Bears recently added veteran Marcus Davenport, while young defensive linemen Jordan van den Berg and Jamree Kromah have provided encouraging flashes.

"The defensive questions — from health to pass rush — lower the ceiling," Fishbain wrote.

That's probably the best way to frame the 2026 Bears. The offense provides enough stability that another disastrous season would be surprising. But the defensive front and secondary have enough uncertainty to make projecting another NFC North championship difficult.

Are the Bears better than a 9.6-win team?

A 9.6-win expectation represents a noticeable step backward from Chicago's 11-6 record last season. That doesn't necessarily mean The Athletic believes the Bears themselves have regressed. Win projections account for the difficulty of reproducing the results of a previous season, and Chicago enters 2026 with significantly higher expectations than it did one year ago.

Still, anything around nine or 10 victories would probably feel somewhat disappointing after what Johnson and Williams accomplished in Year 1 together.

The Bears shouldn't be viewed as a finished product. Fishbain believes they're "probably another playoff appearance away" from joining the NFL's upper tier of Super Bowl contenders. And that's fair.

But the offense also gives Chicago a chance to accelerate that timeline.

If Williams makes another Year 2 jump in Johnson's system, Odunze, Burden and Loveland develop as expected, and the offensive line remains one of the league's better units, the Bears could have one of the NFC's most dangerous offenses.

Then everything comes back to the defense.

If Dennis Allen can generate a more consistent pass rush and Chicago survives its early secondary injuries, 9.6 wins could ultimately look conservative.