3 Keys to a Bears victory over the Lions on Thanksgiving

In a different universe, one in which the Chicago Bears did not fall apart after their bye week, this Thanksgiving matchup with the Detroit Lions could have been a showdown between two playoff teams, potentially even a battle for control of the NFC North. Instead, Chicago is riding a five-game losing streak into this contest and is a huge road underdog. Some Bears fans even wish for the Lions to lay a historic beatdown on the Bears in hopes that it will convince them to do what they should have done in January and fire head coach Matt Eberflus.

Other fans, and of course the players, would rather not endure that kind of humiliation. The Bears want to get back on a winning streak, and they can start that on Thursday with an upset win over their division rival. It won’t be easy, but divisional games are always tough, and the Bears very nearly pulled off upset wins against their other division rivals in back-to-back weeks.

Here are three ways Chicago can upend Detroit on Thanksgiving day.

1. Force Jared Goff to throw the ball.

Jared Goff has only attempted more than 30 passes twice this season, and the Lions are 1-1 in those games. I don’t want to take away from Goff’s excellent season, but the fact is that the beating heart of the Lions is their defense and running game. Former Bear David Montgomery and second-year player Jahmyr Gibbs have been dominant this year, averaging 5.1 yards per carry between them.

Chicago has to find a way to neutralize this rushing duo and make Goff throw the ball more than he’s used to. If they can limit Montgomery and Gibbs on the ground, the offense will get stale and one-dimensional. That’s when an opportunistic Chicago defense can take the ball away and set up short fields for Caleb Williams and the offense.

2. No more blocked kicks.

Special Teams coordinator Richard Hightower absolutely must change his protection scheme on field goal attempts. The Packers and Vikings each blocked a field goal in the last two weeks, and even the kick that sent Sunday’s game into overtime was nearly blocked. Each time, the pressure comes from the same spot on the line.

There are no excuses heading into this Thursday showdown. I don’t care what kind of shuffling Hightower has to do along the line, they need to field a group that won’t allow the opposing team to waltz right into Cairo Santos’ kicking path.

3. A Caleb Williams legacy performance.

Let’s be honest: it’s unlikely that Chicago’s defense will hold Detroit to less than 30 points. Detroit is too good, and Chicago’s defense has shown some stress fractures recently. The Bears hope this one doesn’t become a shootout, but it probably will. That’s where Caleb Williams comes in.

Since the firing of Shane Waldron, Williams has looked more like the generational talent we saw at USC and Oklahoma. He’s playing freer, faster, and is sprinkling in that Mahomes-esque magic that made him the consensus first-overall pick. Chicago needs that guy to show up again on Thursday. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards three times this season and four touchdowns just once. This week, he must put it all together for the best game yet of his career.

If Williams can reach 300 yards and four touchdowns, the Bears will likely pull off the upset.

Final Prediction: Lions win 38-24

As always, once the Bears lose three or more games, I can’t pick them to win again until they… win again. Especially not against arguably the best team in the league right now. I would love to see the Bears leave Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day with a big win and the morale boost that would come from that, and I’m sure the NFL would like to see rising star Caleb Williams enjoy a turkey leg live on air after the game, but I’m going to have to see it to believe it.