The Chicago Bears will enter the 2026 season with expectations that extend well beyond simply making the playoffs again, and the early prediction markets seem to agree.
According to current Week 1 probabilities from Kalshi, Chicago has a 58% chance of defeating the Carolina Panthers in the regular-season opener, making the Bears one of the favorites on the opening-week slate.
It's hardly an overwhelming vote of confidence. A 58% probability suggests the market expects a competitive game, which shouldn't be surprising considering Chicago will have to open the season on the road.
Still, it's another indication of how dramatically expectations surrounding the Bears have changed.
Chicago is coming off an NFC North championship in Ben Johnson's first season, and Caleb Williams enters 2026 with significantly more command of an offense that has generated considerable buzz throughout training camp.
The Bears also have plenty to clean up before Week 1
Injuries have piled up during training camp, particularly in the secondary, while wide receiver Luther Burden III is expected to miss about a month with a groin injury. The hope is that Burden will be available against Carolina, but his status will be worth monitoring as the opener approaches.
If Chicago gets reasonably healthy before Sept. 13, there's plenty of reason to understand why the early market favors the Bears.
A year ago, Chicago entered the season hoping Johnson and Williams could turn potential into production. This time around, the Bears enter Week 1 with something they didn't have before: proof that it can work.
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