In Week 16, the Chicago Bears square up with the Detroit Lions for their second meeting of the year, this one at Soldier Field. The last time these two met was on Thanksgiving, a game that will go down in Chicago Bears infamy as the game that got former head coach Matt Eberflus fired, the first time in franchise history that the head coach was fired before the season ended.
At this point, with a lame-duck coaching staff and riding an 8-game losing streak, the Bears are no doubt just trying to get to the end of the season. DJ Moore admitted as much. Still, one has to hope that professional athletes earning millions of dollars would be able to at least play for some pride, and beating the 12-2 Lions in front of a home crowd just days before Christmas would undoubtedly be a feel-good story for players and fans alike.
It won't be easy. The Bears are 6.5-point underdogs in this one, even at home. But they were a timeout and a handful of yards away from beating Detroit in their own house a few weeks ago, so maybe they can pull it off this time. I'm sure Caleb Williams and others would like to put on a show for Detroit's offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who will be the most sought-after head coaching candidate this offseason.
If they can hit these three keys, the Bears will have a merry Christmas indeed. And who knows? They might just tempt Ben Johnson to seriously consider Chicago's head coaching vacancy.
1. Play like they've got nothing to lose (it's true, after all).
Last week, the Bears went for it on multiple fourth-down attempts, even if the odds weren't good. Normally, I would call that hubris. But at 4-10 and at risk of ending the season on an 11-game losing streak, what do they have to lose? The answer is nothing. There is nothing to lose and everything to gain by playing recklessly at this point.
The Lions have 13 defenders on IR right now. They blew past 'banged up' weeks ago and are officially 'barely clinging to life' in terms of having NFL starters on defense. That's demoralizing enough, but going up against an offense that treats every drive as four-down territory might be too much for them. Unless the yardage hits double-digits, the Bears should go for it every time and get inside their opponents' heads.
2. Contain Jahmyr Gibbs
The Bears are catching a break here, as Lions running back David Montgomery is also on IR. Montgomery has been the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs' lightning, the Knuckles to his Sonic, and Gibbs will be left picking up a lot of slack with him out. Chicago's defense must take advantage of this to limit the damage the Lions can do on the ground.
Despite the defense's horrendous performances lately, I still like their passing defense more than the running defense. I trust the secondary to keep Jared Goff's numbers close to the ground. If they can bottle up Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground without his hard-charging partner, they'll force Goff into obvious throwing situations where the secondary can shine.
3. Caleb Williams.
For a while, Chicago's losses were easier to stomach because Caleb Williams was still playing at a high level, but lately, he's been just as bad as the rest of the team. The Bears have no chance of winning this one, even if the other two keys hit if Williams doesn't play to his best ability. At his best, Williams can go toe to toe with the best of them, even as a rookie.
Williams needs to be sharper and more decisive in this one. If the running lane is there, take it. If a receiver is breaking on his route, let it rip. He also needs to buy into Key #1 and play like he's got nothing to lose. His current streak of 289 pass attempts without an interception (an NFL rookie record) is nice, but I can live with a couple of interceptions here if that means we get more jaw-dropping completions as we saw earlier in the season.
Final Prediction: Lions win 44-24
Look, it will take a Christmas miracle for the Bears to win this one. Eberflus needed to be fired, but he was the last coach in the building with any semblance of head coaching experience, and his absence now has left the Bears in a lurch. They are getting outcoached every minute of every game, and that will continue on Sunday.
Best case scenario? While Ben Johnson cruises to a dominant victory, he spends a little time daydreaming about the schemes he could run with a quarterback like Caleb Williams.