The Chicago Bears dominated much of the NFL conversation over the weekend after they fired head coach Matt Ebeflus. Since then, pundits and fans alike have floated several names as potential replacements. Former head coaches, coordinators, and even a couple of college coaches are on the growing list of candidates who could be coming to Chicago.
One prominent name, however, hasn't received much attention, at least not outside of overly optimistic Bears fans: Kyle Shanahan.
Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers are going through some rough times. The 49ers are dealing with a plethora of injuries that have derailed their once-promising season, and their Super Bowl window is rapidly closing. Age and expensive contracts are catching up to them, and despite reaching the Super Bowl twice in the last six years, the 49ers' best days may be behind them.
The question for team president Kevin Warren and GM Ryan Poles is this: should they make a trade with the 49ers for Shanahan?
Trading for Kyle Shanahan would be expensive.
Coaching trades don't happen very often in the NFL, and for good reason. Successful coaches are hard to come by, and teams won't part with them cheaply. Our most recent example is when the Denver Broncos traded with the New Orleans Saints for the right to hire Sean Payton. Payton, who won a Super Bowl with the Saints in 2009, was technically retired but still under contract. The cost for Denver was a first-round pick plus a second and third-round pick in the next year's draft.
Using that as a baseline, we could expect the Bears to have to pay a similar price for Shanahan. He hasn't won a Super Bowl, but he's been to two in recent years. Unlike Payton, he is currently coaching and would be staying in the NFC. I would expect the Bears to have to give up their next two first-round picks (2025 and 2026) to pry Shanahan away from the 49ers. Considering their first-rounder in 2025 will likely be in or near the Top 10, that's a hefty price.
Why trade for a head coach who can't win a Super Bowl?
I expect many Bears fans to ask this question. The goal is to win championships, which Shanahan has been unable to do thus far.
My answer comes in two parts. First, beggars can't be choosers. The Bears haven't had a winning head coach since Lovie Smith was fired in 2012. They haven't even won a playoff game. Even if Shanahan hasn't (yet) won a title, he's been much closer to one than any Bears coach in over a decade.
Second, it's hard to blame Shanahan for losing both of his Super Bowl appearances when the other team's quarterback was so much better than his. In the modern NFL, when two good teams face each other, it's usually the team with the better quarterback that prevails, and Shanahan had the misfortune of facing Patrick Mahomes twice. The first time, Shanahan's quarterback was Jimmy Garoppolo, who is currently a benchwarmer for the LA Rams, and in the second, it was Brock Purdy. Purdy has played far beyond what was expected of Mr. Irrelevant, but he is still several tiers below the truly elite in the game.
Failing to win a Super Bowl is less an indictment of Shanahan than it is of his quarterbacks.
Kyle Shanahan would thrive in Chicago.
The Bears are 4-8, and they say you are what your record says, but I'm not buying that. The Bears have far too much talent all over the roster to be just 4-8. If the Bears had an even average coach, they'd be 7-5 and in the mix for the playoffs. A decorated coach like Shanahan could potentially have them at 10-2 and in charge of the division.
The overall talent level in Chicago might not be as good as Shanahan's in San Francisco, but with ascending star Caleb Williams under center, Shanahan would finally be in a position where his quarterback is better than most of the teams he plays against.
It takes two to make a trade. The Bears can offer as much as they want for Shanahan, but it won't matter if the 49ers have no desire to part with him. To be honest, I really don't think they do. But it's the GM's job to make phone calls and gauge interest from other teams to get deals done. If Poles is worth his salt, he'll call John Lynch as soon as the season is over.
