The Chicago Bears don't fire head coaches in the middle of the season — not once in over 100 years of history. As a result, and no matter how badly Bears fans want a new coach manning the sidelines at Soldier Field, Matt Eberflus will be Chicago's head coach for seven more weeks. However, Eberflus' seat is white-hot, and he figures to be one of the first casualties of 'Black Monday.'
The evidence against him is just staggering. As Chicago's head coach, Eberflus is just 5-17 in one-score games, by far the worst in the NFL in that time. He has never won on the road on a Sunday. He oversaw the longest losing streak in franchise history and is now on his third four-game losing streak. He's 0-5 against the Green Bay Packers, a 'rivalry' that the McCaskey family allegedly cares about more than most owners.
Sunday's loss to Green Bay may not have been the worst of his tenure, but it neatly summed up his failings. He coached scared, played not to lose instead of to win, and choked away another 4th quarter lead. Barring a miraculous 7-0 run to end the season, I don't see any way he can convince Ryan Poles, Kevin Warren, or George McCaskey to give him another year. Not when the development of Caleb Williams, who showed on Sunday that his career is not over, is on the line.
But who would be his replacement? Here are a few intriguing candidates who may be considered for the job.
Thomas Brown
Wouldn't it be nice if the Bears already had the solution at head coach in the building? Brown is young by NFL head coaching standards at just 38, but he's had plenty of experience in the NFL and was even the assistant head coach to Sean McVay in Los Angeles for two years. He was also a finalist for the head coaching job in Tennessee this offseason.
Most importantly, he already has a connection with Caleb Williams and made an excellent first impression as a playcaller on Sunday. However, being 'the guy' is a far cry from just a playcaller. Would Brown be able to handle the pressure?
Ben Johnson
This is the name that every fan of a team that needs a new head coach has at the top of their list. What Johnson has done in Detroit is nothing short of miraculous, turning Jared Goff, widely considered another first-overall quarterback bust, into an MVP candidate and propelling the Lions to a 9-1 record, their best start since starting the 1934 season at 10-0.
However, does Johnson even want to leave Detroit? The offense there is humming, and he's got a good quarterback, the league's best offensive line, and good pass catchers and running backs to boot. The Lions are considered Super Bowl favorites. If they get to the big dance for the first time in franchise history, I'm not sure he'd want to leave, especially not to a division rival.
Mike Vrabel
I know, I know. "Not another defensive head coach!" I get it, but give Vrabel a chance. He took over the Tennessee Titans in 2018 and led the team to four straight winning seasons, something no Bears coach has done since Mike Ditka. He also guided the Titans to three straight playoff berths, going 2-3 in playoff games. That's not terrific, obviously, but the Bears are in no position to turn up their noses at a 2-3 playoff record, considering they've been 0-2 since 2011.
This would not be a popular pick, and the grading of this hire would greatly depend on who his offensive coordinator would be. Still, Vrabel is very well respected around the league, and his firing from Tennessee was considered a shock. His Titans were never the most talented team on paper, but he still got the most out of them. He'll be back soon, it's just a question of 'where'.
Lincoln Riley
This would be far out of left field for the Bears and uncharacteristic for the team, but there's some merit to Riley's case. As the head coach of Oklahoma and USC, he's collectively 79-23. Most importantly, he was Caleb Williams' coach throughout college. When Riley left Oklahoma for USC, Williams followed him and won his Heisman there. One would think that if any coach can get the most out of Williams, it's the guy who helped turn him into a consensus first-overall pick.
However, there'd be a lot of risk to this hire. Riley has never coached at the NFL level in any capacity, and the track record of college coaches becoming NFL head coaches (without any previous NFL experience) is abysmal. Since 2000, only two such coaches posted a winning percentage above .500, Jim Harbaugh (doh!) and Bill O'Brien (barely). Everyone else? They all lost more than they won.
And that includes college coaching legends like Nick Saban, Chip Kelly, and Urban Meyer. These were all fantastic college coaches, but the NFL chewed them up and spit them out. I wouldn't completely rule out Lincoln Riley, but this is probably not a road that the ultra-conservative McCaskeys would walk.