Stop me if you've heard this one before: it's been a really long time since the Chicago Bears had a good quarterback. The last decent season for a Chicago quarterback was 2018, a fluke year if there ever was one, with Mitch Trubisky barely passing for more than 3,200 yards. This long streak of ineptitude could finally come to an end in 2024, especially if the latest projections from Sports Illustrated hold up.
SI's Conor Orr dropped his projections for all first-round rookie quarterbacks this season, and, to very little surprise, he has Caleb Williams as the top performer of this year's class. Orr predicts that Caleb Williams will complete 65% of his passes for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. If Williams' rookie numbers are close to these, that would make 2024 one of the best seasons ever for a Chicago Bears quarterback, as sad as that is.
Here's what Orr had to say about how he arrived at his projections:
"The baseline comp I used for this was Jared Goff’s sophomore season. These numbers are mostly in line with Goff’s first season with Sean McVay. Waldron was on that staff and would have had an active role in handing over the offense to Goff in very small pieces. I ratcheted up the number of interceptions Williams would throw versus Goff because I think he will have more freedom. I also think Williams’s completion percentage will be better than Goff’s because Waldron has been excellent during his latter years in Seattle building in high-upside, short-yardage completions."
I think most Bears fans would be happy with a Jared Goff-type season after so many years of failures. But here's the best part: in this scenario, this is likely the worst that Williams will ever be. Goff is a fringe Top 10 quarterback in the league, so if that's Williams' floor, his ceiling is truly among the best.
He still has to prove it on the field, but based on the opinions of unbiased third parties around the league and early reports out of training camp, I think the Jared Goff-level floor will prove accurate.
