Now that Caleb Williams has signed his rookie deal and ended any (unfounded) speculation that he might be a training camp holdout, Chicago Bears fans are back to feeling pretty excited about their new quarterback.
Apparently, ESPN's Dan Orlovsky would like for Bears fans to temper this excitement just a bit.
No, Orlosky isn't casting 'doom and gloom' predictions for Williams' debut season, but he's not terribly high on the rookie either.
“It’s unrealistic to think that Caleb is going to step in and hit the ground running like CJ Stroud”.
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) July 16, 2024
Dan Orlovsky doesn’t expect Caleb to have the same type of season as C.J. Stroud. 👀
Agree or disagree? #DaBears #Bears #ChicagoBears pic.twitter.com/YmV4w34AFr
Was CJ Stroud more "pro-ready" than Caleb Williams?
At the beginning of the clip, Orlovsky makes a strong case that Stroud had one of the greatest rookie seasons we've ever seen and that it's unfair to hold Williams to that standard. I get that, and I (sort of) agree. It's his second point where he loses me: that Stroud came from a system that set him up well to be an NFL quarterback.
Before Stroud, Ohio State quarterbacks were notorious for failing at the next level. It was common to see electric, mesmerizing quarterbacks at Ohio State flop as pros. Justin Fields was the latest example of this. The logic went that Ohio State is just too well-run and makes it too easy for their quarterbacks to succeed that they go into the NFL without some of the baseline learning that quarterbacks get at other schools.
It strikes me as unfair, therefore, to cite Stroud's college as a reason for his immediate success in the NFL.
What are realistic expectations for Caleb Williams?
Look, it's hard to project what Williams' rookie year will look like. You want to give grace to rookies, but first-overall picks are naturally expected to need less of a learning curve than others. Some folks want to cite historical struggles for quarterbacks drafted first overall, but none of those quarterbacks walked into a roster with two receivers who racked up over 1,200 yards the prior year. This is truly a unique situation, and I understand that pundits would prefer to err on the side of caution when making official statements as part of their jobs.
But I strongly disagree with calling it 'unrealistic' for Williams to replicate or even exceed Stroud's rookie numbers. Williams was the better prospect coming out of college, came to a team with more wins than the Texans had before Stroud, and has a much better offensive roster around him than Stroud or anyone ever had.
Taking all that into consideration, I think a Stroud-like season is well within Williams' grasp. He shouldn't be considered a bust if he doesn't quite reach those marks, but I think we're doing Williams a disservice if we hold the bar too low for him.
