Bears vs. Cowboys: 3 keys to a Chicago victory in Week 8

Coming off a dominant win over the New England Patriots in Foxboro in Week 7, the Chicago Bears are riding a wave of momentum and confidence. Next up on the schedule is another away game against the Dallas Cowboys (5-2).

The Cowboys are also fresh off a win, though it came over the lowly Detroit Lions, and was still a close game until well into the fourth quarter. Dallas could be without starting running back Ezekiel Elliot, but backup Tony Pollard is no slouch. This will be another tough road game for the Bears, and if they want to notch their first winning streak of the season, they’ll have to build a game plan on these three fundamentals.

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Run the Ball

The Cowboys sport one of the stingiest pass defenses in the league, giving up less than 200 yards through the air and four sacks per game. Their run defense, on the other hand, isn’t nearly as effective, as they’re surrendering over 120 yards per game on the ground.

The mismatch here should be obvious. The Bears’ passing game will struggle to hold up against the pass rush and the secondary, but a healthy dose of running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, plus designed runs for quarterback Justin Fields, should gouge the Cowboys.

Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy should lean early and often on the run game. The Bears are leading the league on the ground with 181 yards per game. Pound the rock, exhaust that defensive line, and make the Cowboys bite on play action and pay for it with a couple of chunk passes downfield.

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Takeaways on Both Sides

After seven weeks, the Bears are tied for the fifth-most takeaways in the league with 12. Only the Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Patriots have more. Unfortunately, their turnover differential is only +1. It’s better than a negative, but that means that despite all of Chicago’s takeaways, they’re turning the ball over almost just as often.

The Bears have had a couple of lousy turnovers. Against the Cowboys, the offense will need to be nearly perfect. Protect the ball and let the ball-hawking defense set up the offense with good field position.

Getting just one more takeaway than Dallas could be enough to get the win.

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Score Touchdowns

This last point makes its way into several of my articles about the Bears. They’ve been moving the ball very well over the last three weeks, but they haven’t been able to get it into the endzone with regularity.

Chicago is struggling in the red zone. The closer to the goal line the Bears get, the harder it is to score. Against the Patriots, Chicago was better in this regard, so that’s something to build on. Field goals did the job against New England, but it may not be enough to beat Dallas.

The game plan for Dallas is probably going to mirror Chicago’s. Dallas has an excellent run game, and the Bears run defense has been porous, though it is improving. Watch for the Cowboys to run the ball a lot and not put too much on quarterback Dak Prescott’s shoulders as he continues to recover from his injury.

As I said above, whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win this one, and I’m going to give Chicago the upset victory, 27-24.