The focus of the entire Chicago Bears offseason has been about Ryan Poles trading down in the NFL Draft.
First, it was whether or not he would move down from the No. 1 overall pick. Then it became not if he would move down but how far he would go.
Now, two weeks away from draft day, the conversation about trading down is heating up again. This time, it’s about moving down a second time from the 9th overall pick, if another team wants to move up into the top 10.
But overlooked in all the trade-down talk has been the possibility of trading up. Not in the first round, from the 9th overall pick, but in the second round, where Ryan Poles holds picks 53 and 61, plus pick 64 at the top of the third round.
The Bears may not feel the need to pick three times in the same 12-pick range. Poles could opt to trade down from 64, but Chicago already has two fourth-round picks, two fifth-round picks and two seventh round picks. That’s plenty of ammunition to trade up from 53 and doesn’t leave much need to trade down from 64.
You don’t have to look back very far to see what it would cost to move up from 53. It happened twice in the last draft, which gives us a real up-to-date market value of what the pick could be worth this year.
Before the 2022 draft, the 53rd overall pick was originally owned by the Las Vegas Raiders. They traded it to the Green Bay Packers as part of the package of picks for wide receiver Davante Adams.
On draft day, the Packers moved up from that spot to the 34th overall pick to draft wide receiver Christian Watson from North Dakota State. Green Bay gave up the 53rd pick and another second round pick, 59th overall, in exchange for No. 34 from the Minnesota Vikings.
If last year is an appropriate benchmark, then we can reasonable assume that the Bears could move up from 53 to the early second round by giving up their other second round pick, 61st overall, or possibly their third round pick at 64, depending on how far they want to go.
The 53rd pick was traded a second time on draft day last year, when the Vikings used it to move up to draft cornerback Andrew Booth.
Minnesota sent the 53rd pick plus a third round pick (77th overall) and a sixth round pick (192nd overall) to the Indianapolis Colts for the 42nd pick and a fourth round pick (122nd overall). The Colts then stayed at 53 and took wide receiver Alec Pierce.
Also in the 2022 draft, the New England Patriots traded the 54th pick and a fifth-round pick (158th overall) to the Kansas City Chiefs for the 50th pick. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traded the 60th pick and a sixth-round pick (180th overall) to the Buffalo Bills for the 57th pick.
So Ryan Poles should be able to move up a handful of spots from either of his second round picks this year by giving up one of his fifth round picks.
He has the extra draft capital this year to move up however far he wants to make sure he gets a player he covets in the second round. If a first-round-caliber offensive tackle or pass rusher slips into the second round, don’t be surprised if he feels empowered to get aggressive.
