Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson isn't your traditional fourth-round pick. His talent warranted a higher selection in April's 2023 NFL Draft, and his character and leadership qualities are first-round traits.
He's been greeted by Bears fans and football media as something more than a fourth-rounder, too. Johnson is a popular choice for writers searching for Day-3 picks who can emerge as rookie starters. With Khalil Herbert (a former sixth-round pick) and journeyman D'Onta Foreman the only running backs in his way for a first-team role, it's easy to understand why there's so much buzz around Johnson.
But is it fair?
Johnson is still a 'young' running back. And I don't mean his age. He was a position convert at Texas -- Johnson was initially a quarterback before changing to running back during his freshman season. And even after making the switch, he served mainly as Bijan Robinson's backup. Indeed, his backup role preserved his legs for the NFL, but it also limited his on-field reps and growth at the position.
Johnson enters the NFL with only 392 career carries at Texas. He had just one season with more than 100 carries, and that was as a freshman in 2019.
In 2022, Johnson carried the ball 93 times for 554 yards and five touchdowns. His 6.0 yards-per-carry last year -- a career-best -- is a good indicator of his development as a runner and his untapped upside.
The analytics support Roschon Johnson's development as a runner. He earned the highest run grade of his career (88.3) from Pro Football Focus in 2022, an improvement over his 86.6 in 2021 -- which, at the time, was his high-water mark. That year-over-year progress is what NFL teams want from college prospects; they don't want players who've already reached their peak. Johnson hasn't.
But suggesting he's ready to handle an NFL starter's workload after not handling anything close to it during his four-year college career is a bit aggressive. Instead, it's more reasonable to expect Johnson to begin the season as a deep reserve. Yes, a deep reserve. A guy who comes off the bench when both Herbert and Foreman need a break.
Again, that's reasonable. Can Roschon Johnson prove in training camp that he's too talented to keep off the field? Sure. But that's less reasonable at this stage of his development. The Bears shouldn't rush to get him there, either. Instead, he can evolve on special teams and in a sub-package role. Get him a few touches per game and see how he does. If he's trucking defenders into middle earth? Keep feeding him. But don't force it.
The Chicago Bears are staring down the barrel of a running back by committee in 2023. The traditionalist in me hates it; the realist understands it's how running games work best in the NFL. General Manager Ryan Poles has done his part to ensure the Bears have a capable committee to take pressure off Justin Fields' legs. That includes Johnson, who at worst will be an above-average pass blocker that can replace Herbert and Foreman in obvious passing situations.
It's important to remember how talented Herbert is, too. He's an NFL prototype for the position. He has speed (mid-4.4s), good size (215 pounds), and outstanding vision. His feel for the flow of a play and his ability to find and hit open running lanes with field-flipping burst made him a threat to David Montgomery's starting job in 2022. We can't forget that; Herbert didn't vanish from the depth chart. He's the RB1, and unless Johnson proves he can do better than Herbert's 5.7 yards per carry last year, he'll have a hard time wrestling carries away from him.
Foreman had a career year in 2022. He outproduced Montgomery and nearly topped 1,000 rushing yards despite being a part-time player for a good chunk of the season. He's a good player. Foreman entered the NFL as a third-round pick but was snakebitten by injuries early in his career. He's the RB1B.
Even Travis Homer will have a say in how many carries Johnson initially earns. Do I think Homer is a roadblock to Johnson getting NFL touches? No. But Homer is a pretty skilled dude, too.
Here's the point: Chicago Bears fans should take a patient approach with Roschon Johnson in 2023. Don't expect him to be a supercharged running back who brings more to the offense than the players already on the roster. And that's not a knock against Johnson; it's a credit to the depth and competition Poles has created in the running back room.
Could Johnson end his first season as one of the NFC's most impressive rookies? Absolutely. I'll always bet on character and work ethic to prevail. Johnson has both in spades. Just be reasonable, and don't let a slow start make you question if Johnson's long-term outlook matches the early knee-jerk reactions.
Johnson was described as a potential pillar of the Bears organization after he was drafted; rare praise for a Day-3 pick and proof of how highly the Bears value his intangibles. However, some of those qualities don't show up on the stat sheet. And perhaps Johnson's best contribution will be how much he pushes a guy like Herbert to emerge as a legitimate star.
We live in a fantasy football society. We want big stats and Rookies of the Year. If Johnson is that guy, we'll all celebrate. But he can be more than just that guy, even if his role in Year 1 isn't as massive as the post-draft analysis has predicted.