NFL.com projecting a dismal season for Bears in 2022

Another day, another brutal prediction for the Chicago Bears’ 2022 season. This time, it’s from NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund, who simulated all 272 regular-season games 75,000 times to reach her projected win totals. The result isn’t pleasant for the Bears.

According to Frelund, the Bears will only win six games in 2022 (6.1, to be exact).

“While my models suggest the Bears won’t be overly punished for not adequately addressing their O-line issues this offseason, they have other questions marks (receiver, pass rusher) that could impact their ability to take full advantage of having a top-five schedule in terms of favorability,” Frelund wrote. “Fun fact: Two of their games — Week 6 (Thursday) vs. Washington and Week 7 at New England (Monday) — are tipping-point contests for their opponents” chances of making the playoffs.”

Fortunately, NFL games are decided on the field, not by computers.

Still, it’s become increasingly difficult to ignore the pessimism surrounding the Bears” chances at a successful 2022 campaign.

Chicago Bears 2022 season predictions marred by perceived offseason failures

The reasons for that pessimism are obvious. Chicago didn’t make a headline-grabbing signing in free agency. They didn’t draft a second-round wide receiver or address the offensive line in the NFL draft until the fifth round. The only noteworthy free agent general manager Ryan Poles signed on offense is center Lucas Patrick, and he’s not exactly a household name.

A 2022 free-agent class led by Patrick and career backup wide receiver Byron Pringle and a 2022 third-round pick invested in wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. have left the Bears vulnerable to this kind of negative press. But what continues to be ignored by prognosticators is the impact a new coaching staff will have on a team that somehow clawed their way to six wins in 2021 under Matt Nagy and Andy Dalton as the opening-day starting quarterback.

Chicago’s roster has undergone massive turnover this offseason. Gone is Allen Robinson, James Daniels, Akiem Hicks, and, of course, Khalil Mack. It’s a cluster of big-name players who will be missed. And it’s understandable why the casual fan will read this list and assume the Bears will take a considerable step backward in 2022.

But none of those players — Mack included — contributed much to the Bears’ wins in 2021. And most of them, aside from perhaps Daniels, is on the downside of their careers. In many ways, Chicago had an offseason of addition by subtraction.

Bears entering prove-it year under Matt Eberflus

The reality, however, is that no one will be convinced the Bears are a better football team right now than they were at the end of last season until head coach Matt Eberflus proves early in 2022 that his system, and his coaching staff, are a two-win upgrade. The development of quarterback Justin Fields is good for another win or two as well.

Before you suggest I’m out of my mind, I’m not predicting a 10-win season for the Bears. But the makeup of this year’s roster — both on the field and among the coaching staff — is better than last season’s six-win squad. Any prediction that has Chicago winning the same amount of games (or less) is bizarre.