This may come as a massive surprise to Chicago Bears fans, but in Week 3 against the Houston Texans, the Bears are the preferred choice among experts picking the game.
According to NFL Pick Watch, 61% of experts who entered their weekly picks are all-in on the Bears. This is a stark contrast to the first two weeks of the season when more than 90% of experts picked the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers.
The Bears (1-1) are three-point home favorites (-3), which in reality means the Vegas oddsmakers think it’s an even game. The home team usually gets a three-point advantage automatically.
The Texans (0-1-1) tied the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 and lost to the Denver Broncos by seven points in Week 2. They’re a scrappy team, but much like the Bears, lack much firepower on offense and are without a superstar on defense. It’s an evenly matched game between two squads that haven’t inspired much confidence through two weeks of the 2022 season, mainly because of each club’s struggling offense.
The Bears and Texans are tied for 26th in the NFL in scoring (14.5 points per game), and each rank in the bottom eight in passing offense (Chicago is dead last at No. 32). The Bears’ rushing offense is a big edge for Chicago; it ranks 8th in the NFL while Houston’s ground attack ranks 27th. Still, the Bears and Texans have two of the four worst offenses in the NFL right now. Perhaps, that’s why the total points projected in this game is only 39.5, the second-lowest projected output for the week.
In a game like this one, the outcome is usually decided by the quarterback. And while Davis Mills has outplayed Justin Fields so far in their careers, Fields’ upside is far superior to Mills’, which is why — for now — the Bears have the edge.