Raiders’ Fernando Mendoza Decision: Keep No. 1 Pick or Make a Bears-Style Trade?

The Las Vegas Raiders are sitting on the most powerful asset in football: the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Now comes the real question: should they actually use it and select Fernando Mendoza?

Or should they do what the Chicago Bears famously did in 2023 and flip it for a franchise-altering haul?

Let’s rewind for a second.

In 2023, the Bears traded the No. 1 pick to Carolina, moving down to No. 9 and landing DJ Moore plus multiple premium draft selections. That move helped accelerate Chicago’s rebuild, giving them flexibility, roster depth, and eventually positioning them to draft Caleb Williams the following year.

The Raiders are now staring at a similar fork in the road.

Next page: The Quarterback Question Looms Large

The Quarterback Question Looms Large

Historically, you don’t trade the No. 1 pick unless you already have your quarterback.

That’s the central issue for Las Vegas.

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The 2026 class is generally viewed as a one-QB draft: Fernando Mendoza. If the Raiders believe he can be a franchise cornerstone, the discussion ends there. You take him. You don’t overthink it.

But if they’re unsure or believe they'll have a chance to land an even better quarterback prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft, then the Bears' model becomes relevant.

The value of No. 1 overall in a one-QB class is astronomical. Quarterback-needy teams will overpay. By a lot.

Chicago extracted a No. 1 receiver and multiple picks. The Raiders could potentially demand even more in today’s market, especially if several teams are desperate to move up.

Next page: The State of the Raiders’ Roster

The State of the Raiders’ Roster

Las Vegas isn’t one player away.

The Raiders finished near the bottom of the league in multiple defensive metrics in 2025 and struggled with consistency at quarterback and along the offensive line. Adding Fernando Mendoza doesn’t fix the multitude of issues across the roster.

That’s where trading down becomes appealing.

More picks mean:

• Multiple starters on rookie contracts
• Cap flexibility
• The ability to build around a quarterback selected in 2027 instead of rushing one into chaos

The Bears understood this in 2023. They weren’t ready for a quarterback. They needed infrastructure first.

Admittedly, the Bears also had Justin Fields, whose role as Chicago's QB1 was still considered safe for the foreseeable future.

The Raiders could conceivably trade a later-round pick for Anthony Richardson and position themselves in a similar situation.

Next page: The Risk of Getting Cute

The Risk of Getting Cute

Here’s the danger. Passing on a true franchise quarterback is the fastest way to set a franchise back a decade.

If the Raiders trade down and Fernando Mendoza becomes a star, the criticism will be relentless. The Bears avoided that outcome because they eventually landed Caleb Williams, who's already proven to have more upside than Bryce Young, the QB the Panthers selected first overall, and CJ Stroud, the passer the Texans took second overall.

That kind of timing doesn’t always work.

There’s also the market reality: trading down only works if someone is willing to meet the price. If offers fall short of a “franchise-reset” package, holding the pick may be wiser.

Next page: What Makes the Most Sense?

What Makes the Most Sense?

If Las Vegas:

• Doesn't have a consensus franchise-QB opinion of Fernando Mendoza
• Have early 2027 quarterbacks graded higher
• Believes its roster lacks foundational depth

Then yes, trading the No. 1 pick is absolutely on the table.

But if they believe Mendoza has the potential to do for them what he did for Indiana? You draft him and don’t apologize.

The Bears’ 2023 decision was about timing and roster context. It wasn’t just about value; it was about knowing where they were in their competitive timeline.

The Raiders have to answer that same question now. Are they ready for a quarterback to elevate them? Or do they need to build the runway first?

Because once you trade the No. 1 pick, you don’t get it back.