With just two weeks until the 2024 NFL Draft begins, the time is right for another full first-round mock draft.
In my last 2024 first-round mock draft, I made picks for each team based on what I would do if I were their GM. This time, I'm trying to be more predictive of what I think will happen. I'm confident in the results, too.
This first-round mock draft includes trades, including one in the back of the first round.
Without further ado, let's get to the picks!
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams - Quarterback, USC
Last week, Caleb Williams paid a Top 30 visit to Chicago, and according to Ian Rappaport of NFL Network, this will likely be his only pre-draft visit to an NFL team. There's no more mystery. The Bears will be drafting Caleb Williams and getting the most talented quarterback they've ever had the chance to select.
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye - Quarterback, UNC
I'm not buying all the hype about other quarterback prospects when we're this deep into 'lying season.' Drake Maye is the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. The Commanders need a quarterback, and they're selecting second overall. You do the math.
3. New England Patriots: Joe Alt - Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame
This is where the NFL Draft will begin in earnest after what should be two easily predictable picks. The Patriots also need a quarterback, but they need a lot of talent in different areas of the roster, and I don't believe NFL GMs have a Top 3 grade on any other quarterback after Williams and Maye. I have the Patriots punting on drafting a quarterback (for now, stick around for the end of this mock draft) and selecting a generational left tackle.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. - Receiver, OSU
Unless the Cardinals are offered an incredible trade offer, and I don't think they will, this is another pick you can write with a Sharpie. Harrison Jr. is a lock for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and I don't think it's ridiculous to say that even before he's been drafted. The one and only knock on his game is a lack of yards-after-the-catch ability, and even that is a bit of a reach.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Taliese Fuaga - Offensive Tackle, Oregon State
There's been a lot of smoke about the Chargers trading back from this spot, but I don't think they want to. With Jim Harbaugh guiding the ship, he will want to beef up his offensive line, and with Alt already gone, he will be adamant to stick and take the best remaining tackle.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers - Receiver, LSU
It's a lot of fun to mock a quarterback to the Giants to compete with Daniel Jones, but I don't see how Joe Schoen could possibly pull that off. I think he will double down on Jones and surround him with enough talent to (hopefully) succeed.
7. Tennessee Titans: Olu Fashanu - Offensive Tackle, Penn State
I've seen Fashanu drift into the teens in other mock drafts, and I don't see that happening. A year after the Titans added Peter Skoronski and kicked him inside to guard, I see them drafting a dominant left tackle to really lock down their offensive line for years to come.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner - EDGE, Alabama
Atlanta would be another prime trade-down candidate here, but with the moves they've made this offseason, it seems like they expect to win now. With that in mind, I have them sticking here to select their top-graded defensive player in this draft, which is probably Dallas Turner. If all goes according to plan, this will be the last time the Falcons have a Top 10 selection in quite a while.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze - Receiver, Washington
Like the Falcons, the Bears are ready to win now and will decide to stay with their pick, reasoning that this will be their last chance to select this high in the draft for many years. Ryan Poles has said that he will be looking at receivers, defensive ends, and the offensive line here, but with the way the board has fallen so far, I think receiver is the best option. With this pick, the Bears will have assembled the best collection of pass catchers in their 104-year history and will give new quarterback Caleb Williams every chance to succeed.
10. Las Vegas Raiders (via NYJ): Jayden Daniels - Quarterback, LSU
Personally, I don't even have a first-round grade on Daniels, but I know it's unreasonable to expect the Heisman winner to slip out of the Top 10. Not when there are this many quarterback-needy teams. Daniels falls just far enough that the Raiders jump ahead three spots to get him rather than see him fall into the hands of Minnesota or, worse yet, a division rival.
11. Minnesota Vikings: JJ McCarthy - Quarterback, Michigan
McCarthy is so hard to project into the NFL. He looks the part of a high-end game manager, the type of quarterback you can win Super Bowls with, but how much of his success in college was due to the elite roster and coaching around him? We'll find out soon. However, I would not be surprised if McCarthy sits for several games to start the season.
12. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix - Quarterback, Oregon
Here's that run on quarterbacks I mentioned earlier. I have Nix and McCarthy with nearly identical grades, and, like McCarthy, I think Nix would likely sit for several games, if not his whole rookie season. But the Broncos need to get out from under the deadweight of the Russell Wilson/Nathaniel Hackett era, and stashing a quarterback with high potential and giving him time to acclimate is a good start.
13. New York Jets (via LV): Brock Bowers - Tight End, Georgia
After a small trade back, safe in the knowledge that their preferred prospect would likely still be on the board, the Jets now land arguably the best offensive weapon in this draft. Bowers is a super-sized receiver who can block and even carry the ball out of the backfield. This is the perfect addition to make Aaron Rodgers' life easier in 2024 and push for a Super Bowl run.
14. New Orleans Saints: JC Latham - Offensive Tackle, Alabama
The Saints need a lot of help heading into the 2024 season, and the way the board has fallen so far, I think the offensive line is their best bet. Latham has been one of the most dominant right tackles in college, and I see no reason why that shouldn't continue into the NFL.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold - Cornerback, Alabama
The Colts may trade back from here and try to select a receiver, but given the paucity of talent in their secondary I don't think that's the direction they'll end up going. Not if Arnold is still on the board, especially when considering that the Colts have to face Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud twice a year.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Johnny Newton - Defensive Tackle, Illinois
I'm shocked at how far some of these defenders are falling in this mock, but the offensive side of the draft is so loaded with talent that that's just the way it went. Newton, at sixteen, is a steal, and he would provide a game-wrecking presence in Seattle's interior defensive line.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinyon Mitchell - Cornerback, Toledo
The Jags could have gone wide receiver here, but I think they'll find quality receivers later in the draft while cornerback depth dries up quickly. Mitchell has great size, athleticism, and ball production and could be the best corner of his draft.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Thomas Jr. - Receiver, LSU
Thomas Jr could go anywhere in this first round, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him break into the Top 10. But here is where I have him landing, which is a home run pick for the Bengals. After locking up Joe Burrow to a big-time contract and needing to pay stud receiver Ja'Marr Chase, there simply won't be much money to go around for the rest of the offense. A great WR2 on a cheap rookie deal will be imperative for them moving forward.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse - Defensive End, Florida State
Future Hall of Fame defender Aaron Donald retired last month, leaving the Rams' defensive line in serious need of firepower. Verse shouldn't be available this deep in the first round, but here he is. A phenomenal athlete with sky-high potential gifted to the Rams.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson Powers-Johnson - Center, Oregon
The Steelers have remade their quarterback room, featuring two NFL leaders in time-to-throw. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields will need significant help from their pass protection unit, particularly in the middle, to provide consistent quarterback play, so I have Pittsburgh going with this JPJ.
21. Miami Dolphins: Troy Fautanu - Offensive Tackle, Washington
In a freezing playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Dolphins scored just seven points as their season limped to an end. The offensive line needs a lot of work. That's where Fautanu comes in, bringing his excellent athleticism and mean streak to Miami. He'll help keep Tua upright long enough to make more plays regardless of the weather.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean - Defensive Back, Iowa
The Eagles defense was suspiciously weak in 2023. It was not the same unit that dominated the NFC in 2022. They need reinforcements, especially in the secondary. DeJean could probably play any position in the secondary at a high level, which makes this pick a no-brainer. All the Eagles must do is bring him on board and figure out where he plays best.
23. Minnesota Vikings (via HOU): Amarius Mims - Offensive Tackle, Georgia
After trading for Houston's first-round pick, it was expected the Vikings would trade up for a quarterback. Turns out they don't need to! In this mock, they get their quarterback at 11th overall, and here spend Houston's pick to fortify the offensive line.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton - Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma
The Cowboys appear to be on the verge of imploding, but that's not their main worry right now. What they need to do is replace Tyron Smith, who signed with the New York Jets, and they do so by drafting the last offensive tackle with a first-round grade.
25. Green Bay Packers: Nate Wiggins - Cornerback, Clemson
While many mock drafters have Green Bay going with a left tackle here due to the official loss of former All-Pro David Bahktiari, the fact is that Green Bay has more or less operated without him for the last three years due to injuries. I don't think it's as big of a need as it seems. With this pick, I have them targeting their top-heavy secondary. They have a couple of good starters, but that's not enough in the modern NFL.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Laiatu Latu - Defensive End, UCLA
Latu would be a lock to go in the Top 10 if it wasn't for his scary medical history. As a result, he falls all the way to 26th overall, where the Buccaneers feel ready to accept this kind of medical risk. The upside is too enormous to pass up at a position of need.
27. New England Patriots (via ARI): Michael Penix Jr. - Quarterback, Washington
Trade alert! The Patriots move up from 34th overall into the back of the first round to take a much lower-cost swing on a quarterback. Penix's arm talent is incredible, and New England cannot pass on him or risk another team scooping him up. Penix might have even beat out Caleb Williams as QB1 of this draft if not for two major red flags: his age (he turns 24 in one month) and his lengthy injury history, including ACL tears and injuries to his shoulder. But the Patriots used their 3rd overall pick to bring in a generational left tackle and can feel a bit better on this quarterback gamble, which costs them very little.
28. Buffalo Bills: Xavier Worthy - Receiver, Texas
Last week, the Bills shocked the NFL when they traded stud wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Texans for relatively little trade compensation. While the move made sense long-term, it left Buffalo with massive shoes to fill. But if anyone can fill the shoes of an elite receiver, how about the guy who set the NFL Combine record for the 40-yard dash?
29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry - Cornerback, Alabama
This was another tough call. I really wanted to send Chop Robinson to Detroit to team him up with Aiden Hutchinson, but I think Detroit's secondary needs more help than the front four. McKinstry's draft stock tumbled a bit in the 2023 college football season, but he's still a stud cornerback with a high floor in the NFL.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Ladd McConkey - Receiver, Georgia
With O'Dell Beckham Jr. leaving Baltimore after just one year, the Ravens are again short on talent in their receiver room. Fortunately, this year's draft is stuffed to the gills with talented receivers, even at the end of the first round. McConkey has shown off some incredible route-running ability, which should more than make up for his smaller size. I see him as this year's Tank Dell.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Chop Robinson - Defensive End, Penn State
The Niners lost quite a bit of firepower on their defensive line in free agency. Adding Chop goes a long way to making up for that. An explosive athlete with a sky-high ceiling who is still just 21 years old, I would not be surprised one bit if Chop ends up being the best defensive lineman of his class, even ahead of the prospects taken twenty picks earlier.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Adonai Mitchell - Receiver, Texas
Some folks are concerned about the motor on Mitchell as he appears to take some plays off if the play isn't designed to go to him. If this is true, then I can think of few places better suited to get him up to speed than the back-to-back Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs may be able to win Super Bowls without a dominant WR1, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't at least try to get one. And if Mitchell can clean up some effort concerns, he sure looks like he could become one quickly.