NFL Best Bets, Week 10: Home Favorites Feast

My Week 9 best bets started out looking promising. After all, the Vikings began their game against the Falcons with Jaren Hall at quarterback, and he had to leave in the first quarter with a concussion. This forced Minnesota to play a quarterback who had only been signed five days ago … Joshua Dobbs.

What could go wrong?

Falcons coach Arthur Smith found a way to make Dobbs look like Joe Montana, marching down the field and scoring the go-ahead touchdown with seconds left, ruining our first Week 9 best bet.

It quickly fell apart afterward, with the Commanders pulling past the Patriots on a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive by Sam Howell late in the fourth quarter.

The only game that didn’t come down to the wire was the Colts-Panthers contest, a blowout from the beginning. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has thrown as many touchdown passes to Kenny Moore and the Colts defense as he has to any of his receivers not named Adam Theilen in 2023.

Let’s try and rebound in this week’s picks

Reminder: Lines taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

BEARS -3.5 vs Panthers

Picking the Chicago Bears this year has not been in my favor, but if there was any week for this team to flex their muscle, it’s this game.

Fields was ruled out Wednesday by Coach Matt Eberflus during his confusing press conference, but I don’t think that should matter with this line. Tyson Bagent has had enough starts and shown enough flashes of ability that I don’t think the Panthers can throw anything at him this week that he hasn’t already gotten accustomed to.

This is especially true when you consider that Carolina will be without star pass rusher Brian Burns and cornerback CJ Henderson.

Meanwhile, the Bears will get safety Jaquan Brisker back. The offense could be getting reinforcements, too, with running back Khalil Herbert and wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown.

There is plenty of motivation on this Bears side, including DJ Moore and D’onta Foreman’s revenge games.

The Bears will do what they have done to some other mediocre QBs they faced this year: try and make them go the length of the field without making a mistake, which, thus far, Bryce Young has struggled to do.

The Chicago Bears will dominate this game from start to finish and win by double digits.

RAVENS -6 vs Browns

I’m not sure there is a hotter team in the league right now than the Baltimore Ravens (with the possible exception of the Cincinnati Bengals). They are the healthiest they have been coming into November in the past few years, and both sides of the ball are clicking.

The Ravens blew out the Browns earlier this year, and while that was with a rookie QB in Cleveland, Deshaun Watson hasn’t exactly rounded back into form.

The Browns have only seven passing touchdowns on the season, and the Ravens have only allowed three rushing touchdowns on the ground all year. This is not a recipe for success for the Browns.

BILLS -7.5 vs Broncos

I’m going with all home favorites this week, as I have the Bills taking care of business on Monday night vs the Broncos.

Ever since their Week 4 win vs Miami, the Bills have alternated wins and losses, with Week 9 being a loss to the Bengals.

Despite this trend, Buffalo knows that their season is on the line. They are currently on the outside looking in as the 8th seed in the AFC. With games against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins looming, this is a MUST-win for the Bills if they want to stay in playoff contention.

I expect the atmosphere on a cold Monday night in Highmark Stadium to match playoff intensity and the Bills to bounce back with a big win against a Denver Broncos team that is still just 2-5 against the spread and just got their biggest win in the last two years.