It's very early in the football calendar to make predictions for the 2023 NFL season, but with most of the league's rosters set, it's worth looking at how teams stack up in each division.
Picking division winners before the season starts is tough in most cases. While some divisions have perennial winners like the Chiefs in the AFC West (seven straight division titles) or the Packers in the NFC North (though that success has likely run its course), others are not so clear-cut.
The NFC East, for example, hasn't had back-to-back division champions since 2004 when the Eagles won four in a row.
But I'm up to the challenge, and I've never been one to back down from a potentially freezing-cold take, so let's get to the predictions.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
Expected yet again to be one of the worst divisions in football, the Jaguars took the division crown in 2022, and I expect them to do it again this year. The Titans appear to be circling the drain with an aging roster while the Texans and Colts are in various stages of a rebuild involving a rookie quarterback. It'll be close, but I'm betting on Trevor Lawrence over CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson... for now.
AFC East: New York Jets
With the addition of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Jets now look like a legit Super Bowl contender. You can never count out the Josh Allen-led Bills, but I think I have more faith in the Jets' overall roster than the Bills'. The Dolphins are a popular pick, but projecting their season is difficult. It all rides on the health of Tua, and that's far from a given after a couple of scary head injuries in 2022.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the division, the Patriots will likely continue to flounder behind uninspiring quarterback play.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
As long as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid are in Kansas City, I will always pick the Chiefs to win the AFC West. However, I won't be surprised if the Chargers or Broncos make it a tight race. The Chargers brought in Kellen Moore as their new offensive coordinator. He will help Justin Herbert become an MVP contender, while the Broncos should see a tremendous rebound season under Sean Payton.
The Raiders are D.O.A. in my opinion. Nothing about their roster excites me.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson got his contract extension, and I think he will once again light up the league and remind everyone that he was the first unanimous MVP in NFL history. Getting over the Bengals won't be easy, but I think they can do it. As for the rest of the division, the Steelers have the potential to leap in the standings if Kenny Pickett can improve. As for the Browns? I don't think Deshaun Watson will ever return to his 2018 form, and the rest of that roster is pretty mediocre.
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
If you thought the AFC South was bad, get a load of its NFC counterpart. The winner of this division could very well have a losing record. The Buccaneers are beginning the post-Brady era with a lackluster quarterback room. The Panthers are turning to a rookie quarterback just months after trading away their only two playmakers (DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey). The Falcons are rolling with Desmond Ridder, and the Saints' biggest acquisition was journeyman QB Derek Carr.
The Saints appear to be the least bad out of this bunch of misfits.
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles represented the NFC in the Super Bowl last year, and their roster only got better since then. There's no question in my mind that they will take the division title. The Cowboys still have an excellent roster, but at this point, it's fair to wonder if Dak Prescott is the quarterback who can lead Dallas to a Super Bowl. The Giants just inked Daniel Jones to a handsome extension. It remains to be seen whether that was a good decision. As for the Commanders, it takes a lot more than a dominant defensive line to win football games; outside of that, they don't have much talent to work with.
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers
Contrary to popular opinion, I don't believe the Seahawks will be as dominant in 2023 as they were last year. I expect Geno Smith to regress to the type of player he's been most of his career. The Cardinals will likely be a disaster until Kyler Murray returns, and the Rams will only win games if their starters remain healthy. Their depth is a real problem.
That leaves us with the 49ers, who have arguably the most complete roster outside of quarterback in the entire league. They rode a seventh-round rookie quarterback to the NFC Championship game, and they could easily do it again. If they stick with Trey Lance and he hits his ceiling, the 49ers could be Super Bowl favorites.
NFC North: Chicago Bears
This division is more open than almost any other in the league, and I could convince myself that any of the four teams could win it. The Packers have a good roster and could retain the crown if Jordan Love can be just slightly above average. The Lions have the best-looking roster we've seen in Detroit for a long time. The Vikings still have Justin Jefferson, so you can't count them out of any game. The Bears have an explosive offense that can put up 30 points at the drop of a hat.
This is essentially a four-way tie, so I'll give the nod to the team with the best quarterback: Chicago and Justin Fields.